BVM update, 23 October 2026. The NBS production release of 20 October 2026 shows different movements in crude and rolled steel. These are reported production figures, not forecasts.
September and January–September
| Product | Sep 2026, Mt | Y/Y | Jan–Sep 2026, Mt | Y/Y |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Crude steel | 73.59 | +0.1% | 724.77 | −2.9% |
| Rolled steel | 118.17 | −3.8% | 1,067.10 | −2.0% |
NBS source. BVM converted the original 10,000-tonne units into million tonnes and retained the published growth rates.
BVM view: read the month alongside the cumulative period
The small monthly year-on-year rise in crude steel does not reverse the decline over the nine-month period. Rolled steel declined in both comparisons. BVM sees a reason to monitor product groups separately when assessing supply: one aggregate indicator cannot represent every item a business purchases.
Do not add the two production rows into a single steel total. When updating the series, keep the indicator, units and comparison period consistent.
Practical implications for transactions
BVM suggests using the release as context, then directly checking the grade, dimensions, delivery condition, available quantity and shipment schedule for each quotation. Chinese output alone does not establish the direction of Vietnamese steel prices.
Sellers should state quotation validity, delivery terms and processing charges. Buyers can compare like-for-like offers from the same period and align purchases with actual consumption schedules. These are BVM transaction-management suggestions, not a price forecast or a recommendation to speculate.
Data: NBS, Industrial Production Operation in September 2026, published 20 October 2026; reference periods September and January–September 2026; checked 23 October 2026. Analysis by BVM.
Cover: AI-created BVM illustration with the authentic logo, not a photograph of a specific factory or shipment.
