More supply does not remove the need to match material specifications and delivery requirements. OECD's excess-capacity warning gives steel buyers a reason to review purchasing decisions against actual production needs.

Edited by BVM on 8 October 2026, drawing on Bình Minh's VnEconomy article dated 5 June 2026 and OECD Steel Outlook 2026, published on 4 June 2026.

Capacity is expanding faster than demand

OECD estimates global steel excess capacity at 640 million tonnes in 2025, potentially reaching 745 million tonnes in 2028. For 2026–2028, demand is projected to grow by 34 million tonnes while capacity may increase by up to 139 million tonnes.

These figures describe the capacity–demand gap, not steel inventories. Capacity forecasts depend on projects under construction and planned. OECD capacity chapter.

Competition and trade pressures

OECD records Chinese steel exports of 131 million tonnes in 2025 and links subsidies and non-market policies to excess capacity, price pressure and increasing trade remedies. OECD international market chapter.

VnEconomy also reports pressure from energy costs and restrictions on raw-material exports. Original VnEconomy article.

BVM's view: start with the actual order

BVM editorial analysis: global figures provide market context. They cannot establish the price movement of an individual grade or specification. Assess each quotation against the material, condition and application required.

  • Define the material: agree on grade, standard, dimensions and delivery condition before comparing prices.
  • Check supply documentation: verify the producer, origin, batch identification and MTC as required by the order.
  • Plan around production: balance quantities, inventory and delivery dates; confirm actual availability.
  • Review trade conditions: for international orders, check requirements relevant to the product, origin and destination at the time of the transaction.

BVM considers price alongside quality and delivery. A suitable supply arrangement helps customers use the right material, maintain clear records and plan production.

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Independently edited by BVM with source summaries and practical commentary. Forecasts retain their June 2026 reference date. The cover is an AI illustration of the steel industry.